Transitmix continues its development

By Evan Landman. 

Last summer, we covered an exciting new transit planning tool called Transitmix. Transitmix grew out of a Code for America project that sought to create a web-based tool to automate much of the complex yet mundane work that goes on in the background during transit planning. Cost estimation, line measurement, population and employment coverage analysis, are all examples of tasks that require time and effort such that they cannot all be carried out in real time during a planning meeting or workshop.

The team at Transitmix reached out to transit planners all over the county (including our firm), learning what did and didn't work about current practices and workflows. They created a beta version of a simple online tool that hinted at what might be possible. Finally, last week, Transitmix released a new video announcing the impending release of the professional version of the application, with critical features that offer the promise of a dramatically simpler, more open, and more easily understood transit planning tool.

Dynamic demographic and employment mapping and analysis, and side-by-side network and route comparisons are the main new features implemented here, to go along with the live updated costing, and deeply configurable frequency, span, and cost parameters the older version already includes. Transitmix continues to impress, creating a tool that simplifies and demystifies procedures that are too often known only to practitioners. We look forward to getting our hands on the full-featured product.

how we kick off a planning study: video

We don't always kick off planning studies with a public event,  but that's what we did for the Wake County Transit Investment Strategy in Raleigh, North Carolina.  At a kickoff meeting attended by hundreds of people, I gave a presentation on how we'd approach the project, which is mostly how my firm approaches any planning project.  While there are some local references, it's easy to follow no matter where you live, because it's mostly about the big-picture.  Some time-stamps:

  • 0:30 Remarks and kind introductions from County Manager Jim Hartmann and Capital Area MPO Executive Director Chris Lukasina.
  • 5:18 Beginning of my remarks: "This plan will be yours."  Our firm's approach to transit studies.
  • 7:53 The New Case for Transit:  Why the conversation about transit is changing, in the US and overseas.
  • 21:52.  Common Mistakes About Transit.  
  • 26:14 "Plumber's Questions."  The Ridership Recipe and the Ridership-Coverage Tradeoff.
  • 43:27  End of my remarks.  Richard Adams of Kimley Horn speaks on local conditions in Wake County.  From here on, through the Q&A, the conversation becomes more locally focused.

 

learning from “mini metro”

Mini metro logoI've long wished there were an computer game that would require players to figure out the basic facts of transit network design.  I don't mean complex simulation games like Cities in Motion, Transport Tycoon or (shudderSimCity, which simulate so many things that it's hard to focus on the network element.  I mean a game that is simple but engaging the way chess is, and where the strategy you need to learn happens to also be What City-Makers Need to Understand About Transit (but Often Don't).  

Games are a good way of thinking about real problems (see Jane McGonegal's great book Reality is Broken).   And there are plenty of geeks out there, in city-building professions and advocacy, who'd enjoy learning this way.  I use (non-computer) games in all my courses and stakeholder workshops because things you've played with are things you remember.

Well, now there's a draft of the very game I've been imagining, thanks to Peter and Robert Curry of the New Zealand gameshop Dinosaur Polo Club.   Their game, Mini Metro, is  simple, fun, and (if this is a virtue) addictive.  And if you notice what's going on, you'll learn some sound principles of network design that will serve you well, no matter what your role is in creating the cities of the future.  

This post is not a critique of Peter's and Robert's work.  They eagerly emphasize that they're not transit experts; they're just clever blokes who set out to create a fun game about transit, and who succeeded.  My focus here is twofold.  First, let's notice how accurate a game that set out to be fun turns out to be.  Second, let's think about what steps you'd take to make it a little more accurate, if you wanted to.  

Here's how it works.

You choose one of several world cities, which basically gives you a famous set of water features that will require bridges or tunnels.  Start the game, and little shapes start appearing.  These are potential stations, with demand for travel to other places.  Click on a shape and connect two of them, and you've built a line, where a short train starts running back and forth.  Before long, you have something like this, from a recent session of the Cairo game.  

Mini metro cairo early

(If you don't like the background color, play one of the other cities; I think this one is trying to suggest desert sand.)

Early in the game, you see circles and triangles, and a single square.  Next to each symbol, you'll see little black symbols accumulate.  Those represent someone at that station who wants to go to a station of the specified shape.  For example, in the image above, at the circle station at the south end of my Red Line, above, someone is waiting who wants to go to a triangle.  

The demand-generation rules of Mini Metro are oversimplified, but not disastrously so.  People always want to go to a station of a different symbol.  Most demand is between a circle and a triangle.  You'll note that in the sample above, I've arranged a radial network so that identical symbols (between which there's no demand) are never adjacent on a line, and so that each circle or triangle is connected to a nearby symbol of the other type.    

Both circles and triangles also generate demand to squares; initially there's only one square but gradually more appear.  If you like, the square is downtown, the triangles are local retail/activity centers, and the circles are residential areas.  Because all stations generate demand to squares, and initially there's only one, it's logical to start by building a radial network, like the one above, with the single square at the hub.

So far, the game has presented two obvious oversimplifications.  First, there is no "mixed use," but this is accurate in a way:  Players experience the transport demand problems created by monotonous single-use development patterns.  The residences (circles) are all over here, and the shopping (triangles) are all over there, and a bunch of important things are only downtown (squares), so everybody has to get from here to there, over a distance too far to walk.    So there's lots of need for transport in this city, even from the earliest days!

Second, the society represented by Mini Metro displays some strongly fictional features.  A black triangle by a symbol means someone wants to go to any triangle, not a particular one.   Not only are people content to go to whichever shopping center the next train is going to, they feel the same way about jobs and even about homes!  Nobody  in this city wants to go to their own home+family, but just to whichever is easiest to get to on the next train.  Clearly, we are in a science-fictional society that engages in spontaneous partner-swapping and communal parenting on a citywide scale.

But does this simplification get in the way of the accuracy of the game in conveying how earthbound transit networks are designed?  Only to a point.  It makes the game much easier than real network design is.  In Mini Metro if a circle is connected directly to any triangle, it doesn't need to be connected to others, whereas a real residential area will generate specific demand to each of the retail/activity centers nearby.  

On this point, the game encourages a  lazy design habit that creates problems the real world: focusing  on the large-scale flows of demand to the point that you neglect the fact that people are going from everywhere to everywhere.  I can't tell you how often I've seen someone point to a map and say "these people, they're all going over there!"  What that really means is that above the high level of everywhere-to-everywhere demand, there's some preponderance of demand from this place to that place, but this pattern is rarely as big as it's made to appear.  Some people are just uncomfortable thinking about the reality of everywhere-to-everywhere demand, and need to oversimplify.  Be suspicious when you hear statements of that form. 

Look again at that first screenshot above.  At this stage, I've gotten to nine stations with a totally radial system, and it's working fine, but that's an artifact of the game's oversimplification.  In the real world, someone in that circle at the west end of the Blue Line would want to go to the triangle on the same side of the river — because in a real city, people are going everywhere.  Mini Metro makes that not my problem as a designer, but in a more accurate game it would be; we would see more complex demand patterns, perhaps with many people willing to go to the nearest triangle but some needing to go to specific ones.  

In the upper right of the screen is a timer that counts off days of the week.  Every seven days, you get one "locomotive" (which is to say, another train you can add to an existing line, increasing frequency).  You also get either a new line, a new carriage (which adds to the capacity of an existing train, or a new tunnel or bridge to extend another line across the water body.  I like the Cairo and London games because they don't need a lot of tunnels, which enables me to focus more on network structure.  Mini Metro also includes cities with much more complicated water barriers (Osaka, Hong Kong, Auckland) if you like dealing with those.

The object of the game is to carry as many people as possible to their destinations before any station exceeds its capacity.  In the image above, I've already carried 36 people in this early stage of the game, per the counter just to the left of the clock in the upper right.   If people accumulate at a station faster than trains come to pick them up, the station is marked as critical and you have some time to intervene.  Eventually, though, the game ends with so many stations over capacity that you can't manage to get a train to them all soon enough, and that's the end.  The number of people you've carried by that time is your final score.

This is not, of course, how real transit networks die.   But it is true that capacity is considered a must-solve problem by many transport engineers.   Meanwhile, it's very realistic to score a game on how many people reached their destinations.  That's access, after all, or if you're a businessman it's also fare revenue.

When I say that some engineers think capacity is a must-solve problem, am I implying that it isn't?  Well, in the real world, some capacity problems are so expensive that they are not worth solving, so people stop travelling.  Likewise, if you add a lot of new capacity, you will get more people using it.  These are the phenomena of suppressed and induced demand, respectively.  Unlike the citizens of a Mini Metro city, real people have a range of choices, and choose transit or not based on how it stacks up against alternatives.  (The same things happens with roads, of course.)  So more capacity attracts more people and less capacity pushes them away.  There's a longer term land use impact of this process that can be positive.  If you don't keep meeting a very expensive capacity demand, the development pattern will eventually adjust to one that doesn't require so much capacity — for example, one that fosters generally shorter commutes by putting jobs and appropriate housing closer together.

The Mini Metro world has none of that nuance; instead, it runs on the assumptions of classical transport engineering.  Demand is envisioned as being like floodwater: it's coming at you in a predictable quantity, nothing you do can change that, so you just have to handle it somehow.  So this is another simplification that can mislead.  

Let's take the game above a little further.  Again, here is the radial network that evolved early in the game, with an alternation of circles and triangles on every line.

Mini metro cairo early

 

And a bit later it looked like this:

Mini metro cairo early plus 1

Something interesting has happened on the west side of Cairo.

In the first screenshot, the Green Line west of the river had only one circle to serve, so I routed it through the triangle to end at the circle.  But as more station areas appeared — that is, the city grew due to single-use development — I was presented with a problem.  The original circle was south of the triangle, so I had turned the Green Line south to end there.  The next circle that appeared, however, was northwest of the triangle, and a reasonably direct line could not serve both.  This is the "Be on the Way" principle, probably the single fact about transit that the city-building professions are least likely to understand.   The "be on the way" principle says: "If you want your new development to have great transit service, put it on a direct path with other places that do."  

In this case, I can imagine what happened.  The developer of the first circle, south of the triangle at the west end of the Green Line, took it for granted that the green line would be extended to him, and it was because he was there first.  Meanwhile, the second developer, northwest of the triangle, assumed that the Green Line could be extended to him.  But it couldn't be extended because the triangle was no longer end of the line.  (Mini Metro doesn't allow branching, but if it did that wouldn't really solve the problem because branching divides frequency.)

So the appearance of that one circle northwest of the triangle required me to rearrange the whole westside network structure.  I extended the Blue Line north so that it would cover both southern circles and end at the triangle, making it possible to extend the Green Line to the new circle out to the northwest.  It's never good to have two identical symbols connected, because there's no direct demand between them, but often it's unavoidable.  Here, it's manageable because once the Blue Line extends to a triangle, its trains will pick up triangle-bound people from these two circles in both directions of travel.  This doubles the effective frequency for getting to any triangle, which is all that our flexible citizens seek to do.

Let's notice some other things that have happened by the time of the second screenshot, above.  Apart from the westside problem I just described, I've been able to arrange the rest of the network so that stations visit circles and triangles in alternation.  This is a very efficient use of capacity, because many people ride for just one station; that means we turn over the load quickly, serving many people with few trains.  By contrast, if we have a series of circles with no triangle, each circle's demand adds to that of the previous circle, so we hit the capacity limit of the train sooner, and start leaving people behind.

Is it good that the game's goal is to optimize capacity rather than optimize customer travel time? Real transit agencies care about both, and at low levels of demand (early in the game, say) they're very different.  But they do tend to converge, mathematically, as cities grow.  The key elements of transit travel time are speed and frequency, but these are both elements of capacity as well.  Obviously, too, a capacity failure means that a train leaves the station without you, and that affects your travel time as well.

Less realistic is the game's construction of costing.   In the game, adding a carriage to a train is more expensive than adding another train, where in reality the opposite is true.  In the game, the cost of a carriage is the same as the cost of a tunnel/bridge — which amounts to confusing millions with billions — and it's also the same as the cost of a "new line."  Lines, of course, do not make sense as cost units at all.  Their cost is entirely a function of their length, the vehicles on them, etc.  "Line" is just a unit of nomenclature.  (Once more with feeling: When a transit agency brags about how many lines or routes they run, they are not bragging about the quantity or quality of their service; they are bragging about its complexity.)  Finally, of course, capital and operations costing are conflated, which is not necessarily fatal in a game this simple, but would need to be thought about. 

Now let's skip well ahead in my Cairo game, to see how the network evolves.

Mini metro cairo early plus 2

The city kept adding more station areas — new development nodes — and I've been forced to extend service to them.  In particular, more squares have appeared, signifying multiple regional centers — like the original downtown — that draw demand from longer distances.    Also, many more unique citywide destinations have appeared, such as the cross in the southeast part of town that presumably represents a hospital.  Third, there are more maddening cases where the various demand generators are not conveniently balanced.  West of the river, for example, there are now ten circles, three triangles, and no squares.  That means that it's impossible to set up lines with an ideal alternation of circles and triangles, because there aren't anough triangles per circle.  It also means  everyone from that part of town who's going to a square (or any unique citywide destination) has to cross the river, which means long-distance demand flows that will consume lots of capacity on all the east-west lines.  

That, ultimately, is the problem that will cause this network to fail.  When a station goes over capacity because it's impossible to run enough trains across the river, everyone will yell at the transit agency.  But the problem is a land use problem.  If there were a square on the west side of the river, and the triangles were spread out more widely, the network could be more efficient, which means a lot more people could have accessed their destinations, and gotten on with their lives, without requiring so much expensive transit capacity.

A great thing about Mini Metro, then, is that it accurately conveys the exasperation of transportation planners about transport-ignorant land use planning.  Sometimes, there's nothing but circles in one part of the map.  You can either put them all on one line, which will go over capacity at once, or run a whole bunch of parallel lines to different circles, at huge expense.  Either way is inefficient, and the emotions you are likely to feel about this impossible land use pattern — analogous to many square miles of residential with few destinations, all requiring travel in a single direction at the same time — are definitely putting you in a transport planner's shoes!

What else has happened in the game by this time?  As a result of the city getting larger, the network has not only grown but changed.  Once other squares appeared, it was no longer necessary to run the whole network to the original central square.  Instead, the demand pattern called for a grid, the ideal network structure for a city with balanced everywhere-to-everywhere demand.  Of course, the demand is still not balanced, because of the land use patterns, but as the city has grown it has grown more diverse, with more different kinds of destinations in many areas, so this is moving toward an approximation of everywhere-to-everywhere.  

If you can't see a grid in the screenshot above, look closer.  From top to bottom, the east-west elements are the Grey Line, the Blue Line, and the Orange Line.  From left to right, the north-south elements are the Orange Line, the Green Line, the Red Line, and the Grey Line.  The Grey and Orange serve as both because they are L-shapes.  L-shapes are fine in a grid as long as they main bend of the L occurs on the edge of the city and not in the middle.  

They key requirements of a true grid are observed:  Each north-south or east-west element continues all the way across the grid so that it connects with every perpendicular element.  This means that all trips are possible with a single connection.  This is a good thing for customer travel time, but it is also a good thing for managing station capacity, the ultimate object of the game, because connections are a main cause of station overcrowding.

If you compare the last two images, you'll see that in evolving the grid I've had to change the network substantially, rather than just grow from the orginal radial network.  Earlier we discussed the Green Line on the westside, but now the Green Line doesn't go there at all.  In the earlier radial system this line went north out of downtown and then turned west.  Once another square appeared in the north-central part of the city, it made sense to let the Green Line continue north to that and create a new east-west Grey Line.  In fact, much of the original radial structure has been revised.  

Grids, I should add, aren't always the answer.  The game includes a couple of cities, notably Auckland and Osaka, where there are so many water barriers that the need to conserve tunnels imposes a dramatically different shape.  Auckland, a series of ithsmuses, seems to work best with local circulators and strong axes linking them (the trick is to put all the citywide destinations on the axes, which are then one transfer from almost anywhere).  

Auckland 1

Indeed, the essence of what's fun about this game is that you have to keep revising your notion about what's a good structure.  You don't know where or what the new station dots will be.  You may develop one structure to deal with a poor circle-triangle ratio, as on the west side, but then more triangles will appear and you need to change the structure substantially to take advantage of that.  Playing the game, you notice your attachment to your network ideas, but winning lies in letting go of a network pattern as soon as it no longer fits the growing city.  If there are not too many water barriers, grids are almost always the answer, but what you're seeking is a marriage of the grid principle with the actual geography and land use, and that marriage is always evolving.

The final phase of the game is, of course, the most frustrating.  Demand grows everywhere, and as stations fill up with waiting passengers, little clocks appear at them counting down to the moment when they fail and you lose the game.  A basic strategy is to keep one line in the bank, so that you can create a short, temporary line wherever it's needed as a capacity problem occurs.  If a station is over capacity, and I can see that no train with enough spare room will get there in time, I can build a little two-station line from that station to wherever its people most need to get to.  It runs one trip to evacuate the station, then I remove it and deploy the same line at the next critical station.  (In the Auckland screenshot above, the pale magenta line is one of these temporary relief lines, which I'd just removed.)

We have discovered the most realistic thing about Mini Metro:  If you want to win, think of these "trains" as buses.  

In real rail transit systems, you cannot simply abandon a rail line and build a new one — certainly not just to handle an overcrowding problem.  But to do well in Mini Metro you must revise the network repeatedly, and the last phase of the game you'll deploy lots of one-time-only temporary lines  In fact, for best results, make sure you also have a spare tunnel, so that if you have to get a train quickly to a station on an island, you can build a temporary line to a destination across the water, deleting it after use.  

To a rail engineer, all this is ridiculous, but to a transit network designer, it's the game's most realistic feature.

Build a subway line to run one train once, then tear it out?  No, this is not how rail transit works, but it's very much how buses work, and it's good thing, too.  That's why buses provide a much better sandbox for network design thinking.  When you build powerful networks with buses,  mistakes cost thousands rather than billions, so they're more likely to be repaired.  Real-life transit networks do need to evolve, usually from radial beginnings to more gridlike structures.  That's been theme of many of our recent network redesigns — in Houston and Columbus and even (if you squint) Auckland.  

Of course, this is not a bus vs. rail post; I hope I've established by now that "rail vs bus" is a false and boring dualism.  Rail is needed in many places, but rail mistakes are much bigger than bus mistakes.  When I advise on rail networks, for example, I'm always trying to make sure that planned lines make sense in the context of a much larger city and network of the future.  Grid patterns are safe because they work in so many possible future land use patterns, but I sense danger when a city proposes to build too many radial lines, or proposes short rail fragments that might one day be extended to a useful scale but that turn out to be net obstacles in the meantime (Hello, Toronto!).  

So while it's fun to imagine you're drawing a metro, Mini Metro rewards revision, which means it's about the kind of design that requires the flexibility of buses.  Buses are not flexible forever; well-designed networks do finally settle into successful patterns that become permanent, which means they could safely be converted to rail in the future.   But for now, your rail lines are really bus lines — or, since this is a science-fictional society — a sexy transit tool that's low-infrastructure and hence easy to revise. 

In my recent correspondence with Peter Curry, he mentioned that he was thinking about revising the game to make it more expensive to change structures that are already built.  I hope he doesn't, because that will make it a very different game, one that's about infrastructure instead of networks. Infrastructure is expensive, permanent, rigid, consequential, hard to make decisions about, and therefore best used only when necessary, which it often is.  Networks are full of possibility, are focused on liberating human beings, and for some of us can also be endless fun to think about.  Besides, there are already plenty of infrastructure games.  When it comes, I'm pretty sure that the ideal network planning game — and online teaching tool — will learn a great deal from what Peter and Robert Curry have done in Mini Metro.  

nearmap brings its high-resolution aerial imagery to the US

Understanding and decisionmaking in transit planning requires many inputs. These include agency staff expertise, all sorts of public input, performance and operational data on costs and ridership, and an array of supporting demographic information. However, when it comes down to questions of rights-and-lefts, at the lowest level of planning altitude, one source of information is critical: aerial photography. 

Transit design processes frequently involve very detailed questions that not everyone at the table has personal experience with. These sorts of questions:

  • Is the traffic median of this boulevard wide enough for the bus to use to make an uncontrolled turn without blocking traffic?
  • Is there a place at this intersection where we could locate a new stop?
  • Can pedestrians cross this road? 
  • Have people created their own use paths to shorten their walk from a subdivision out to the bus stop? 
  • Can a bus make this turn?

These small issues can have a big impact if they require substantial redesign (for example, finding a new turnaround), so it is important to get as much right as possible during design. To do this, we rely on aerial and satellite photos. Sometimes very high-resolution imagery is available from local governments, but more often we turn to Google Earth, due to its speed and ease of navigation. However, Google Earth is a limited tool – its images range in quality from new and crisp to dim and out of date. 

Nearmap is an alternative to Google Earth that has grown more and more impressive. Initially confined to Australia and New Zealand (I used it all the time when I lived there), it now includes all large US cities. The site's best feature is the very recent, aerial high-resolution imagery it offers, but it also has nice image capture and layer overlay tools, all in-browser. 

Google Earth has long been a critical tool because of its position between true GIS, with its steep learning curve, and consumer maps like Google Maps. However, while some nice features have been added over the years, the software is still much the same as it was back in 2005. Products like Nearmap, as well as the host of applications built on platforms like Mapbox, OpenLayers and Leaflet, are important because they offer some of the flexibility of GIS (importing layers, creating features), with the familiar toolset of web map navigation that most people are now familiar with.

Maps have always been a powerful tool. In a planning process, better maps can help enable better decisions to be made.

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Updated 30 Dec 2014 to clarify that Nearmap is aerial, not satellite, which is part of why it's so sharp!

 

mitigating construction impacts through placemaking in St Paul (video)

Any large transportation infrastructure project involves the temporary inconvenience of construction. While a new rail line or viaduct might be a lasting asset for a city, and one that continues to be useful for decades to come, short term impacts can prove disastrous for people involved in commercial activity around the construction zone, and disruptive to neighborhood residents. In some cases, business owners have even been driven to legal action by this issue. Part of the problem is that for the duration of construction, inconvience, noise, and rubble can come to define perception of the corridor where work is being done. 

5VDEYtLHowever, disruption can also be an opportunity. In St. Paul, a local nonprofit called Springboard for the Arts led an initiative ("Irrigate") to try to respond to the construction of the Central Corridor Green Line and support local businesses and neighborhoods through a placemaking approach. Irrigate provided hundreds of artists with training and funding to do small projects in neighborhoods along the corridor in collaboration with business owners and neighborhood groups. This grant-funded program was specifically oriented towards improving business and neighborhood viability.

Here's their video:

 

A program like this can help to mitigate construction impacts through direct financial stimulus to artists, indirect support for businesses through those artists' projects, and a high level of media visibility that can change the conversation or perception about a place. Irrigate's goal was for the story of the Central Corridor to be about arts, thriving businesses, and healthy neighborhoods, not the inconvenience of being in a construction zone. 

As a City of St. Paul policy director puts it in an independent audit of the program:

While the City of Saint Paul tried feverishly to garner positive coverage for the benefits of transit that the Central Corridor would bring to the community, their positive message was consistently diluted in the media by negative stories about the impact of construction. As Irrigate projects began popping up along the Corridor in unexpected ways, the disruption of the many small projects quickly had a surprising impact. The magic of art started a different conversation, something that couldn’t have been predicted  but was such a blessing. Irrigate’s public process engaging artists from the community to support local  businesses provided a nimble and creative way to influence the narrative and change community  perceptions of the value of community development. Irrigate’s approach taught the public sector that  sometimes it’s alright to let go of the bureaucratic process to allow for a more organic process of  community engagement.

Here, "placemaking" doesn't mean a bench or a mural; those are tactics. With Irrigate, placemaking was sustained investment in this corridor over a period of years, supporting hundreds of projects. 

Apparently, Irrigate has been successful enough for Springboard to create a toolkit to duplicate the progam elsewhere; according to one piece, it's already in use in Cleveland and Mesa, Arizona. Transit agencies could learn a lot from this example when laying the groundwork for their projects. While the work that Springboard did here is probably outside of the capabilities of most if not all agencies, building connections to foster this type of action prior to a big project could prove to be a prudent investment.

Image: Springboard for the Arts

the pedestrian experience in cities where cars rule

This image by Claes Tingvall needs to go viral.

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I had many years living as a pedestrian in cities designed or managed for cars, including most big American cities in the least century, and I've never seen an image that better captured how that felt. 

The bottomless void, in this metaphor, represents the essential unpredictability of the reckless or distracted motorist (there only needs to be one) combined with the destructive potential of their machine. The sidewalk is a narrow ledge on the edge of extreme danger.  Crossing the street, even with a crosswalk, works when it works, but the rickety bridge perfectly captures the inherent risk; you're still relying on people to notice you even while they're texting, reading the newspaper, daydreaming, dozing off, flipping dials on the radio, trying to figure out the controls on their rental car, or doing any of other the things people do to handle the tedium of driving.

When we face this kind of danger in national parks, the government provides safety railings to keep us back from the precipice.  We tolerate this level of danger only for well-warned hikers in deep wilderness, and for almost everyone who ventures into the city without a car.

Basics: Controlling Altitude in Planning

Airplanecontrails-ianrenton

One of the basic skills you should expect from a planning professional is the ability to control altitude.  Uncontrolled loss of altitude is a common cause of planning failure.

Altitude determines what you see.  If you are higher up from the surface of the earth, you can see a large area, but in less detail.  At lower altitude, you see a smaller area, but in greater detail.

In planning, there are high-altitude projects, which look at a large area (a city, a county, an urban region) and identify appropriate solutions to problems that exist at that scale.  There are also lower altitude projects, all the way down to parcel-level development approval, or, in my business, detailed designs of a transit station or a bus schedule.

Each project also moves through different altitudes.  As in a plane, you need to get up high to see the big picture.   If you don’t, if you just draw a box around a problem and try to solve the problem inside that box, you may do damage outside the box.  For example, if land use planning is nothing but development approval, then stuff will get built, project by project, without any attention to the aggregate consequences of that development — on traffic, on livability, on natural resources, etc.

On the other hand, plans that remain at high altitude — regional structure plans, vision plans, “strategic” plans, etc — don’t have any effect on reality unless they’re implemented by actions at lower altitudes.

So the airplane metaphor works like this:  To see clearly, we need to get our plane to a high altitude.  But to implement anything, we then need to land the plane.

The key is to lose altitude in a controlled and intentional way.  You look at the problem at high altitude and see the solutions that make sense at that level.  Maybe, for example, you identify a corridor that should have some kind of rapid transit but you don’t specify what the technology should be, or even an exact alignment.  Then, later, a study focuses just on that corridor and explores all the options for it.  All the remaining steps from there to implementation are part of a controlled loss of altitude until finally, on opening day, you’re on the ground:  The thing you planned is actually happening.

However, there is always the danger of uncontrolled loss of altitude, i.e. crashing the plane.  This happens when a conversation at a certain altitude is interrupted or shut down by a low-altitude issue.  For example, when we’re exploring the possible structure of a citywide network in a city, an operations manager may interject that a particular turn isn’t possible, or that this business would never let us put a bus stop there.  Those comments are plane-crashers.  If we succeed, at high altitude, in developing a network vision that excites people so that they want it to succeed, all those problems will be easy to solve.  But if we let those little concerns veto the high-level thinking, we’ll never be able to talk about the big picture.

This comes up often among people who have strong emotions about particular transit technologies.  They fervently support or oppose some technology option, so want to know the answer to the technology question before we have properly thought through higher altitude questions:  What are our goals for transit?  How do we balance predictably competing goals?  What kind of citywide network do we want?   What kind of mobility and access do we want to provide?

If those sound like hopelessly abstract questions, read the introduction to my book.  There, I explain how we can approach these questions so that citizens can answer them with an awareness of the consequences.  That, in turn, means that the decisions they make can be implemented.  The plane can descend, and finally land.  The key, as I explain there, is to listen to your plumber!

Photo:  Airplane Contrails- Creative Commons: Ian Renton, 2011

 

 

 

the explosive global growth of bus rapid transit (BRT)

recent study from ITDP  surveys the growth of BRT around the world over the past decade.  

BRT Infographic

 

Note that IDTP thinks of BRT as something that matches the performance of rail using buses.   ITDP's BRT standard excludes many of the projects that the US Federal Transit Administration calls BRT, which amount to premium buses in mixed traffic with minimal speed and reliability features.*  

China has created the largest quantity of true BRT systems, but of course in per capita terms it's Latin America that is building true BRT most intensively.  Fast-developing middle-wealth countries like China, India, Mexico, and Brazil are the sweet spot for BRT because (a) car ownership is still moderate, (b) government power tends to be consolidated enough that decision making is easy, (c) there is simply not enough money to build massive rail transit systems, at least not quickly and at the necessary scale.  

This news is also interesting in light of the forthcoming Rio de Janeiro conference on climate change, and the rumours that China may be ready to commit to reducing emissions, putting pressure on India to do the same.  Latin America, where many countries of similar wealth already have relatively strong climate change policies, is the perfect site for this conversation.

The other interesting stat is how rapidly the BRT revolution has moved.  Of all the true BRT in the world, 75%  was built in the last decade, mostly in middle-income countries, and the pace shows no signs of abating.

Fortunately, those middle income countries amount to a big share of the world, which could mean a real impact on global transportation impacts over time.

 

* (I tend to agree with ITDP's concern that the overly weak use of the term BRT is making it hard to talk about the original point of the BRT idea, which was to mimic what rail rapid transit does in terms of speed, frequency, and reliability.  This meaning is inherent in the "R" in BRT, which means "rapid".)

Luca Guala: driverless buses will be more transformative than driverless taxis

34Part 2 of my letter from Luca Guala, of the Italian consulting firm Mobility Thinklab.  (Part 1, on personal rapid transit, is here.)

Last summer, we tested driverless minibuses along a route of 1.3 km on a pedestrianized boulevard in Oristano, a small town in Italy. The idea was to test driverless vehicles mixed with traffic.

Why minibuses and not taxis? Firstly, because it is much simpler to teach a robot to follow a fixed route, rather than teach it to go anywhere the passengers want to go. Such a system is already operational in Rotterdam (2getthere.eu/projects/rivium/) and it works well, but it has one drawback: the tracks are segregated and they represent an ugly severance in the urban tissue.

But if the vehicles are allowed to run with cars cyclists and pedestrians, a public transport route can be “adapted” with unobtrusive measures to accept driverless vehicles, and the people sharing the road will quickly learn to live with them. The main problem here was not technical, as legal.

Hence the idea of testing similar vehicles in an open field mixed with pedestrians. The first test we did had mixed results, the second test that will be done in La Rochelle, France this winter will take advantage of all that we learned in Oristano.

So what did I learn from all of this? That driverless cars very likely have a bright future, but cars they will always be. They may be able to go and park themselves out of harm’s way, they may be able to do more trips per day, but they will still need a 10 ft wide lane to move a flow of 3600 persons per hour. In fact, the advantage of robotic drivers in an extra-urban setting may be very interesting, but their advantages completely fade away in an urban street, where the frequent obstacles and interruptions will make robots provide a performance that will be equal, or worse than, that of a human driver, at least in terms of capacity and density.

True, they will be safer (especially because the liability for accidents will be borne upon the builder) and a robotic traffic will be less prone to congestion (I envision robotic cars marching orderly like robots, packed at 1.5 second intervals, while their occupants fume wishing they could take the wheel perfectly aware, but not at all convinced that their robocars are more efficient drivers than they are – or worse, they DO take the wheel overriding the … robots!), but I do not expect driverless cars to dramatically increase the capacity of a lane to transport persons. 

Driverless buses, on the other hand offer an interesting feature: the human driver is no longer needed, removing an important cost and several constraints.  This allows them to serve efficiently and economically low-demand routes and time bands, while allowing [agencies] to concentrate the number of manned buses on high demand routes at little added cost. 

I take all this automation talk with a grain of salt still, as I don't think we've begun to explore the human response to it.  But Luca is right about the key point:  driverless buses are a much easier problem than driverless cars, and their space-efficiency will continue to be crucial in busy corridors where even driverless cars will add up to gridlock.

Luca's last paragraph suggests that driverless buses will start with smaller vehicles in simpler situations, which is a possibility.  But of course, once the concept is proven, the economics of driverlessness will create pressure to bring the technology to big buses.  The same logic is also driving the movement to run fully-grade-separated without drivers, on the model of Vancouver, Dubai, and Paris.  The logic of driverless trains is easy: with automated train controls systems there is really not much for a driver to do in non-emergency situations, and these cities have found that those tasks are easily automated.  We are all used to small systems of this type, because we encounter them in large airports.  The driverless bus in traffic is a harder problem, but we will have solved all of those problems if we ever develop driverless cars.  In fact, the problem of the driverless bus, which never goes into alleys or minor streets, should be considerably easier, since navigation turns out to be one of the biggest challenges for the driverless car.  

Note also that the challenge of planning for driverless cars is not in envisioning a utopia where they have complete dominion over the street.  The future must be evolved, which means that we must plan for the interim state in which some cares are driverless and most aren't.  That is a situation where driverless buses could thrive, because they will be competing with something that — in terms of poor capacity utilization — resembles today's traffic on major streets, not a world optimized for the driverless car.

As Luca indicates, we know what the problem with driverless transit will be: long fights with labor unions who feel entitled to cradle-to-grave  security in a single job.  It will be one more kind of automation that requires people to retrain and to participate in a more complex and competitive economy.  In an ideal system, many drivers would be replaced by support jobs such as fare inspectors and roving problem-solvers; as on Vancouver's SkyTrain.  This seems to be what Luca is envisioning when he speaks of the continued need for "manned" services.  

But the real result of massively abundant transit — which is the real point of the large driverless bus  – will be massively more opportunity for all kinds of innovation and commerce to happen in a city,  unconstrained by the limits of car-based congestion.  That's a wrenching change, and I am as adamant as anyone about the need to protect workers from exploitation.  But in the long run, over a generation or two, the outcome will more interesting jobs for everyone.  Bus drivers shouldn't encourage their children to go into the same profession with the same expectations, but that's true of many jobs — perhaps even most jobs — in this rapidly changing world.

Luca Guala: Why “personal rapid transit” evolves into fixed route transit

1280px-Masdar_PRT_(1)Remember Masdar, the car-free neighbourhood in Abu Dhabi that was going to show the power of "personal rapid transit" (PRT)?   

I just received this interesting letter from Luca Guala, a transport engineer in Italy:

Let me introduce myself. I am a transport planner and I am partner of a consultancy Company named MLab (mobilitythinklab.com), based in an obscure corner of Italy. Nothing to brag about except that I have had the chance to participate in two very interesting experiments that concerned automated, driverless vehicles: the Masdar City "Personal Rapid Transit" “automated taxi” transit system and the CityMobil2 experiment with automated minibuses in a mixed setting.

In 2006, I proposed to London’s architects and planners Foster & Partners to choose PRT as a sustainable, non-polluting transport system in their bid for Masdar City’s masterplan (which they won).

To make a long story short (my involvement in Masdar City lasted 3 years) we soon realized that the dream of using “automated taxis” as a mass transport system often resulted in… queues of taxis at pick up points!

Even though the “podcars” are the size of an European or Japanese mini city car (Citroen C1, or Toyota Aygo for example) but seats 4 people in full comfort and up to 6 rather uncomfortably, they still took up so much space, that we found ourselves at a bifurcation: capacity or space? Should we give up some capacity (and find something else to provide the peak) or enlarge the transport infrastructure beyond our desires, and what was healthy for a city? A well known dilemma for any transport planner…

We then tried a “group rapid transit” strategy, as opposed to “personal rapid transit”: timing the podcars to travel at fixed intervals and on fixed routes at peak, so that they could fill up on most requested routes. This strategy did work, although the capacity almost tripled, it was not that of true mass transit (but in densely built Masdar City there was no room for big mass transit) but then the economic crisis arrived, the plan was dramatically downsized etc. etc.

Bottom line:  When "personal rapid transit" succeeds, it succeeds by turning into a conventional fixed route transit system.  The fantasy of "personal" transit is that a vehicle will be there just for our party and take us directly to our destination, but in constrained infrastructure this only works if demand is low.  But PRT was meant to the the primary transport system in a car-free city, so demand would be high.  It was never going to work.  

Luca takes on driverless taxis in part 2 of his letter, coming in the next post.